心脏病和中风可能影响美国至少60%的成年人.S. by 2050

在一个年龄更大、更多元化的美国，至少有六成的成年人是这样认为的.S. 人口 could be affected by cardiovascular disease within the next 30 years, 根据两份新的科学报告.

The projected rise in heart disease and stroke – along with several key risk factors, including high blood pressure and obesity – is likely to triple related costs to $1.到2050年将达到8万亿美元, according to two 美国心脏协会 presidential advisories published Tuesday in the AHA journal Circulation. 一份报告着眼于 预计心血管疾病的增加 未来几十年的利率，而 另一个 预测他们的总相关成本.

“美国心血管疾病的情况.S. 即将迎来一场近乎完美的风暴. Dhruv年代. 咨询写作小组副主席卡兹在一份声明中说 沙巴足球体育平台发布会上. Kazi是卫生经济学的负责人，也是Richard A. 苏珊·F. Smith Center for Outcomes Research in Cardiology and director of the cardiac critical care unit at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston.

"The last decade has seen a surge of cardiovascular risk factors such as uncontrolled high blood pressure, 糖尿病和肥胖, 每一种都会增加患心脏病和中风的风险,他说. "It is not surprising that an enormous increase in cardiovascular risk factors and diseases will produce a substantial economic burden."

Cardiovascular disease refers to conditions such as coronary heart disease, including heart attacks; heart failure, which is when the heart doesn't pump as well as it should; heart arrhythmias, including a type of irregular heart rhythm called atrial fibrillation; vascular disease, which affects the veins and arteries; congenital heart defects; stroke; and high blood pressure.

因为高血压, 也被称为高血压, 会导致几乎所有类型的心脏病和中风, 研究人员对这种情况做出了不同的预测. According to their projections, from 2020 to 2050, high blood pressure is expected to rise from 51.2%到61%的美国.S. 人口.

不包括高血压患者, researchers project 15% of the 人口 will have developed cardiovascular disease by 2050, 从11起.3% in 2020. 这包括中风率增加一倍.

肥胖率预计将从43%上升.1% to 60.6%的人口, with adults ages 20 to 64 expected to see the highest growth because of unhealthy diets.

糖尿病发病率预计将从16%上升.3% to 26.8%的人口.

即使在儿童和年轻人中，危险因素也在上升.

By 2050, obesity is expected to affect a third of all children, up from 20% in 2020. The highest increases are expected among children 2 to 5 years old and 12 to 19. 促成因素, 比如身体活动不足和饮食不良, are expected to remain as high as 60% of all children over the next three decades.

Kazi said disease rates are climbing at a time of pivotal 人口结构的变化.

"The last of the Baby Boomers will hit 65 in 2030, so about 1 in 5 people in the U.S. 将超过65岁，在美国首次超过儿童.S. 历史，”他说. “因为心血管风险随着年龄的增长而增加, the aging 人口 increases the total burden of cardiovascular disease in the country."

Researchers anticipate the Hispanic, Asian and multiracial 人口s in the U.S. 会在未来几十年翻一番吗.

"By 2060, 超过三分之二的儿童将属于服务不足的儿童, 被剥夺权利的群体, which traditionally have higher rates of cardiovascular disease and risk factors,卡兹说.

根据预测, the biggest rise in the total number of people with cardiovascular disease will be among Hispanic adults, 亚洲成年人也出现了大幅增长. Black adults are projected to have the highest rates of high blood pressure, 糖尿病和肥胖, 以及睡眠不足和饮食不良的比例最高. Asian adults are projected to have the highest rates of inadequate physical activity, 亚裔和西班牙裔儿童的患病率也很高.

西班牙裔儿童的肥胖率预计最高, 与此同时，肥胖人口预计将出现最大增长, 高血压和糖尿病. Black children are expected to have the highest overall rates of 高血压和糖尿病.

"We found larger increases in the prevalence of cardiovascular disease and risk factors, 在患有这些疾病的人数中, 在不同种族和民族背景的人群中," Dr. 凯伦E. 写作委员会主席乔伊特·马多克斯在沙巴足球体育平台稿中说. She is an associate professor of medicine at Washington University School of Medicine in St. 路易. 虽然增加的部分原因是由于美国.S. 人口结构的变化, much of the inequity in cardiovascular disease and risk factors "remains attributed to systemic racism, 以及社会经济因素和获得保健的机会,她说.

研究人员确实发现了一些积极的趋势. 整体, the percentage of people who don't get enough physical activity is expected to drop, 从33.5% to 24.占人口的2%. 吸烟率预计将从15%下降近一半.8% to 8.4%的人口.

The writing committee noted that aggressive approaches to reducing cardiovascular risk factors could alter some of these predictions. 卡兹说，任何疾病的减少都有助于降低成本.

“我们可以改变心血管疾病的成本曲线, but this will require strategic investments in cardiovascular prevention and treatment,他说. “这需要我们所有人共同努力才能实现."